Students on Ice Blog

Canada in the Post-American Arctic

by David M. Brock

(First published May 4, 2009)

The 2009 biennial Arctic Council ministerial meetings were recently held in Tromso, Norway. Some of the delegates in attendance were speaking Mandarin.

Mandarin-speaking mandarins at an Arctic policy conference may be perceived by some as odd. Not so.

Diplomats from the People’s Republic of China were dispatched to nearly seventy degrees north latitude because China now holds ad-hoc observer status on the Arctic Council.

Non-Arctic states are making strategic investments for polar positions.

For example, in the past decade, research stations have been established on Norway’s Svalbard Archipelago by South Korea, China, and India. In the Polar Regions, scientific investment serves as a proxy for diplomatic interest.

Non-Arctic states are also inviting polar specialists into their countries.

This past winter I served as visiting lecturer on polar issues at the West Bengal National Law School in Calcutta, India. My own experience reflects a broader trend.

In 2007, the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings were held in New Delhi, India; this year, the International Symposium on Polar Sciences will take place in Incheon, South Korea. We may yet see an Arctic Council meeting in Beijing.

One hundred years after United States Rear Admiral Robert Peary claimed to have reached the North Pole, we are entering the age of the post-American Arctic.

Fareed Zakaria’s argument, that American power is not irrelevant, but that it is diminishing, is as applicable in the Arctic as it is world-wide.

Shifts in polar power are being driven, in part, by rapid changes in the Arctic’s physical geography. As the sea ice diminishes, the level of U.S. concern rises. Consider the magnitude of these policy developments:

the U.S. Navy considers climate change a strategic threat, and openly calls upon American politicians to ratify the Law of the Sea Treaty that governs activities on the Arctic Ocean and will help delineate sovereignty below;

in December 2008, President George Bush issued a National Security Directive on Arctic Policy calling for multi-lateral institutional cooperation in the region;

in April 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the U.S. Senate has been asked by President Barack Obama to approve ratification of the 1991 Madrid Protocol on Antarctic environmental protection.

The United States will remain, for the foreseeable future, the most robust and capable power in the Arctic. However, innovation, ideas, and information are enabling other nations, particularly non-Arctic states, to assert their polar interests.

How might Canada fare in the post-American Arctic?

The changing physical and political environment in the Arctic is prompting continuous commentary in this country about how best to protect Canada’s Arctic sovereignty. Too often Canada’s Arctic policy debate is characterized by anti-Americanism, anachronistic Cold War rhetoric, or self-congratulatory fawning.

Some recent efforts, such as the book, Arctic Front, by Ken Coates, et al., attempt to realign the debate. They use an historical position to argue in favour of a mix of defense and development policies in the North. Yet, the sub-title of this book – “Defending Canada in the Far North” – reveals that these authors are ensnared in the same intellectual trap as those they criticize.

Defense is a predictable response to change.

Canada would benefit from an Arctic policy that strives to do more than defend what we have.

Canada needs a strategic policy framework that seeks to leverage our Arctic advantage in international affairs.

Our Arctic advantage is derived from our circumpolar expertise, location, and status.

Canada’s Arctic advantage could be used to build stronger networks with non-Arctic states that demonstrate polar interests.

Take the case of India.

India is a natural partner for Canada. The country is democratic, federal, and an English-speaking member of the Commonwealth, with immeasurable economic potential and a government that seeks to expand its international influence.

India has long-standing polar interests. It was one of the only countries pressing the Antarctic question at the United Nations in the 1950s, when a treaty governing the South Polar Region was still a contentious proposal. In 1983, India gained consultative status as a signatory to the Antarctic Treaty, a status that Canada has never acquired. During the 2007 to 2009 International Polar Year, India rebuilt its Antarctic research station and erected a new research facility on Svalbard.

India’s scientific pursuits in the Polar Regions are more than epistemic. They are also economic and strategic. The potential for shortened marine transportation routes, bio-prospecting discoveries, and resource extraction partnerships are all of interest to India. Moreover, for a country excluded from G-8 meetings, the best way to convene with senior diplomats from the United States, Russia, Germany, and France, may be to attend meetings of the Arctic Council.

Canada could leverage its Arctic advantage and assist India in advancing their polar interests. Canada could offer scientific knowledge, logistical expertise, access to northern terrestrial and marine locations, opportunities for resource investment, and institutional backing.

In exchange, Canada might attain entrée into India’s expansive markets where local networks are critical for business success, as well as deepen our partnership with an emergent world power that could become an influential ally both in the Arctic and in other international fora.

Arctic sovereignty is an important issue for Canada, but one that receives a disproportionate amount of attention. Canada should begin to debate how to leverage its Arctic advantage in international affairs, as the age of the post-American Arctic begins.

David M. Brock is a Students on Ice expedition staff team member and public policy strategist currently living in the Northwest Territories, Canada.

Former SOI expedition photographer Trevor Lush was recently interviewed by Stock Photographer
John M. Lund.

See an excerpt from the interview here:

Interview with Photographer Trevor Lush

by John M. Lund

John: Can you tell us about a memorable shoot that you have had?

Trevor: Hard to narrow it down… but I will say that I’ve been fortunate to have been a part of some Arctic Expeditions with a group called Students on Ice. An amazing organization that brings students from all over the world to the Polar regions to provide them with an intimate educational experience at the ends of the earth.

Documenting the expeditions has been a unique challenge for me, as I’ve never really considered myself a documentary photographer. I’m so used to being in control of the situation when I’m on set, and making great images as they unfold all around you is an excellent way to reexamine your skills as a photographer.

Besides the experience of working in such close proximity to Polar Bears, Walrus, Bird Colonies, Whales, Glaciers, and Icebergs - it’s the people you get to share this experience with. The team of scientists, historians, artists, authors, educators, polar experts, and the Inuit community, are incredibly open and passionate about sharing their knowledge and experiences with everyone around them.

These are excellent virtues that I think we should all adopt into our daily lives.

To see the entire interview, visit
http://www.articlesbase.com/digital-photography-articles/interview-with-photographer-trevor-lush-897638.html
or
http://digitalcamerablogsite.com/interview-with-photographer-trevor-lush/

Rapid sea level rise possible: scientists

by Randy Boswell

Canwest News Service (June 23, 2009)

It’s a little-known natural wonder along Baffin Island’s rugged east coast, a spectacular, 110-kilometre-long channel lined by towering cliffs that — despite its extreme remoteness — is a mecca for base-jumping enthusiasts from around the world.

But U.S. scientists who have reconstructed a cataclysmic glacial meltdown in prehistoric Canada say Nunavut’s Sam Ford Fiord is also a sentinel of danger in the age of climate change, showing just how quickly the planet’s massive coastal glaciers could disappear and send global sea levels surging.

Their study, published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience, says the rapid melting of the fiord’s colossal, kilometre-deep glacier about 9,500 years ago is proof that similar features found today in Greenland, Canada and Antarctica could be lost “in a geologic instant.”

That’s several decades or even a few centuries in ordinary time — but fast enough that the scientists, led by State University of New York geologist Jason Briner, are sounding an alarm about the present-day implications.

“A lot of glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland are characteristic of the one we studied in the Canadian Arctic,” Briner states in a summary of the study, which presents evidence the Baffin Island glacier retreated at rates of up to 58 metres a year near the close of the last ice age. “If modern glaciers do this for several decades, this would rapidly raise global sea level, intercepting coastal populations and requiring vast re-engineering of levees and other mitigation systems.”

Many of the fiords with the world’s largest coastal glaciers today are “strikingly analogous” to Sam Ford at the time of its “rapid deglaciation,” Briner and two co-authors state in their Nature Geoscience article.

“Thus tens to hundreds of kilometres of retreat of present outlet glaciers is possible in the coming centuries.”

Researchers around the world are closely monitoring the conditions of ice shelves, glaciers and sea ice in the Earth’s southern and northern polar regions.

Rising global temperatures, widely believed to have been fuelled by industrial-age carbon emissions, are generally blamed for accelerating glacial melts and opening long-frozen polar sea routes.

Last summer alone, Canadian scientists recorded the collapse of about one-quarter of the ancient, glacier-fed ice shelves along the north coast of Ellesmere Island.

“Indeed the collapse of ice shelves and the rapid retreat of large ice streams (such as the ancient one at Sam Ford Fiord) are not too dissimilar,” Briner said Monday.

“But tidewater glaciers like the one studied — and like the hundreds around the world that scientists are really worried about — calve off icebergs, and when they do so quickly, it is collapse-like.”

And notably, Briner adds, the rapid calving and retreating of such mammoth coastal glaciers does significantly “contribute to sea-level rise.”

For more information, visit http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Technology/Study+warns+fast+melt+glaciers/1722686/story.html

Sea levels could rise by a “catastrophic” 10 feet by the end of the century – putting millions of people at risk of flooding with coastal cities such as London, New York, Tokyo and Calcutta submerged, according to a new study. The findings confirm the potential that continuing rapid ice loss could cause disastrous sea-level rise by 2100.

by Richard Alleyne

The Daily Telegraph (April 15, 2009)

The melting of the vast ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland caused water to pour into the world’s oceans at an alarming rate at the end of the last period of global warming, the study shows.

Analysis of fossilised coral reefs off the Gulf of Mexico found many died during this time – known to climatologists as an “interglacial” – and were replaced by new reefs on higher ground.

This happened over a long-term ecological timescale and was caused by a rapid jump in sea level of between 6.5ft and 9.8ft (two to three metres) that occurred around 121,000 years ago, say the researchers.

The findings published in Nature raise concerns that current climate change could yield similar quick ice loss and disastrous sea-level rise in the near future.

Dr Paul Blanchon, a marine scientist of the National University of Mexico in Cancun, said his study shows there was a spell of swift melting during the warmest part of the last interglacial.

With growing evidence for contributions from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to sea-level rise, the findings confirm the potential that continuing rapid ice loss could cause disastrous sea-level rise by 2100.

Dr Blanchon said this is also bad news for modern coral reefs which are already suffering because of human activity.

He said: “Knowing the rate at which sea level reached its high-stand during the last interglacial period is fundamental in assessing if such rapid ice-loss processes could lead to future catastrophic sea-level rise.

“The best direct record of sea level during this high-stand comes from well-dated fossil reefs in stable areas.

“Here we present a complete reef-crest sequence for the last interglacial high-stand from the stable north-east Yucatan peninsula in Mexico.

“The abrupt demise of the lower-reef crest allows us to infer that this occurred on an ecological timescale and was triggered by a two-to-three metre jump in sea level.

“We constrain this jump to have occurred 121,000 years ago and conclude it supports an episode of ice-sheet instability during the terminal phase of the last interglacial period.”

The prediction is not as high as those from some scientists who have warned sea levels may rise as much as 16 feet (five metres) by the end of the century.

But a rise of even a metre could have major implications for low-lying countries whose economies are not geared up to build sophisticated sea defence systems, such as Bangladesh.

For more information, visit www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/5159086/New-warning-over-catastrophic-sea-level-rise-scientists-claim

The wheel on the right depicts researchers’ estimation of the range of probability of potential global temperature change over the next 100 years if no policy change is enacted on curbing greenhouse gas emissions. The wheel on the left assumes that aggressive policy is enacted. (Image courtesy / MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

Climate Change Odds Much Worse Than Thought

ScienceDaily (May 20, 2009) — The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth’s climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that.

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well - such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT’s Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important “to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science,” he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. “In that sense, our work is unique,” he says.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees. The difference is caused by several factors rather than any single big change. Among these are improved economic modeling and newer economic data showing less chance of low emissions than had been projected in the earlier scenarios. Other changes include accounting for the past masking of underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect. In addition, measurements of deep ocean temperature rises, which enable estimates of how fast heat and carbon dioxide are removed from the atmosphere and transferred to the ocean depths, imply lower transfer rates than previously estimated.

Prinn says these and a variety of other changes based on new measurements and new analyses changed the odds on what could be expected in this century in the “no policy” scenarios - that is, where there are no policies in place that specifically induce reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, the changes “unfortunately largely summed up all in the same direction,” he says. “Overall, they stacked up so they caused more projected global warming.”

While the outcomes in the “no policy” projections now look much worse than before, there is less change from previous work in the projected outcomes if strong policies are put in place now to drastically curb greenhouse gas emissions. Without action, “there is significantly more risk than we previously estimated,” Prinn says. “This increases the urgency for significant policy action.”

To illustrate the range of probabilities revealed by the 400 simulations, Prinn and the team produced a “roulette wheel” that reflects the latest relative odds of various levels of temperature rise. The wheel provides a very graphic representation of just how serious the potential climate impacts are.

“There’s no way the world can or should take these risks,” Prinn says. And the odds indicated by this modeling may actually understate the problem, because the model does not fully incorporate other positive feedbacks that can occur, for example, if increased temperatures caused a large-scale melting of permafrost in arctic regions and subsequent release of large quantities of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas. Including that feedback “is just going to make it worse,” Prinn says.

The lead author of the paper describing the new projections is Andrei Sokolov, research scientist in the Joint Program. Other authors, besides Sokolov and Prinn, include Peter H. Stone, Chris E. Forest, Sergey Paltsev, Adam Schlosser, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, John Reilly, Marcus Sarofim, Chien Wang and Henry D. Jacoby, all of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, as well as Mort Webster of MIT’s Engineering Systems Division and D. Kicklighter, B. Felzer and J. Melillo of the Marine Biological Laboratory at Woods Hole.

Prinn stresses that the computer models are built to match the known conditions, processes and past history of the relevant human and natural systems, and the researchers are therefore dependent on the accuracy of this current knowledge. Beyond this, “we do the research, and let the results fall where they may,” he says. Since there are so many uncertainties, especially with regard to what human beings will choose to do and how large the climate response will be, “we don’t pretend we can do it accurately. Instead, we do these 400 runs and look at the spread of the odds.”

Because vehicles last for years, and buildings and powerplants last for decades, it is essential to start making major changes through adoption of significant national and international policies as soon as possible, Prinn says. “The least-cost option to lower the risk is to start now and steadily transform the global energy system over the coming decades to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies.”

This work was supported in part by grants from the Office of Science of the U.S. Dept. of Energy, and by the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

Journal reference:

A.P. Sokolov, P.H. Stone, C.E. Forest, R. Prinn, M.C. Sarofim, M. Webster, S. Paltsev, C.A. Schlosser, D. Kicklighter, S. Dutkiewicz, J. Reilly, C. Wang, B Felzer, H.D. Jacoby. Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. Journal of Climate, 2007; preprint (2009): 1 DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1

For more information, visit www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090519134843

A satellite image showing the mark left by emperor penguin guano in the Antarctic.
(Photograph: British Antarctic Survey)

Penguin poo viewed from space reveals new Antarctic colony locations

British Antarctic Survey finds 10 new emperor penguins colonies
using satellite images that show patches of guano

by Shiona Tregaskis

Mark of the penguins: New colonies of emperor penguins have been discovered in Antarctica after their faeces stains were tracked by satellite

Guardian News Service (June 2, 2009) — Stretches of excrement-stained ice that are so large they are visible from space have helped scientists to locate 10 newly discovered emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica.

Researchers at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have used satellite images, created to survey the sea ice around Antarctica’s coast, to identify emperor penguin colonies using the huge tell-tale reddish-brown patches the birds leave behind.

BAS mapping expert, Peter Fretwell, said it was a “fortuitous” discovery. He noticed that patches on the ice in a satellite image corresponded with a known colony. The images, which came from the Landsat Image Mosaic Of Antarctica (LIMA), compiled by Nasa, USGS, National Science Foundation (NSF) and BAS, provide a high-resolution satellite view of the Antarctic continent.

By studying the images, the scientists discovered that guano stains are reliable indicators of the birds’ presence. “We can’t see actual penguins on the satellite maps because the resolution isn’t good enough. But during the breeding season the birds stay at a colony for eight months. The ice gets pretty dirty and it’s the guano stains that we can see,” said Fretwell.

The study, published today in the journal Global Ecology and Biogeography, identified 10 new colonies – which are each made up of thousands of penguins – bringing the total number to 38.

Emperor penguins spend a considerable part of their lives at sea. During the Antarctic winter when temperatures can drop to -50°C they return to their colonies to breed. Fretwell said: “Traditionally we would have used helicopters to find them because colonies breed on sea ice – which means they can be anywhere on the coast of Antarctica. Our previous knowledge is patchy.”

Dr Phil Trathan, BAS penguin ecologist, said: “Now we know exactly where the penguins are, the next step will be to count each colony so we can get a much better picture of population size. Using satellite images combined with counts of penguin numbers puts us in a much better position to monitor future population changes over time.”

Emperor penguin populations are a useful climate change indicator due to the birds’ reliance on sea ice. They are the least common Antarctic penguin, with an estimated 200,000 breeding pairs.

For more information, visit www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/02/wildlife-poles

Ottawa not doing enough to ensure Canadians control commercial shipping there, experts say

by Bob Weber

The Canadian Press (June 14, 2009)

The thinning Arctic ice pack is already producing the much-anticipated surge in commercial shipping through the Northwest Passage.

And as the pace of ice loss accelerates, experts say the federal government is not keeping up to ensure Canadians control it.

Three companies are now planning to send commercial vessels deep into the Passage’s once ice-choked waters this season – triple the number from 2007. There are now more solely commercial vessels in the Passage than there were ships of all kinds just a few years ago.

“The ice is more favourable than in past decades,” said Captain Georges Tousignant, who is scheduled to take a cargo ship from Montreal almost to the western gates of the fabled waterway this September – the first such passage for Nunavut Eastern Arctic Shipping.

“It’s navigable,” Capt. Tousignant said. “It’s not that high-risk.”

With that run, which will land supplies at communities all along the Arctic coast, NEAS joins two other shippers plying the same waters.

DesGagnes Transarctik sent its first cargo vessel into the Passage last season. Northern Transportation Company Limited has shipped to those communities for years, sailing from west to east.

Experts have long predicted that shrinking Arctic ice cover would lead to an increase in use of those waters. The increase, they said, would be created by demand from local communities and growing northern industrial development.

That’s exactly what’s happening.

Coast Guard figures show there were 62 commercial and resupply ships and three ore carriers in the Passage last year. That’s more than all 54 of the ships that entered those waters just four years earlier, which includes research and recreational vessels.

Although the Coast Guard expects the number of research and tourist ships to decline slightly, commercial shipping is still expected to increase.

“The demand is increasing steadily,” said Waguih Rayes, DesGagnes’ general manager.

That demand comes not only from Nunavut’s growing population, but from the federal government’s increasing spending on northern infrastructure. Northerners rely on sealifts for everything from bulk supplies of dog food to concrete and lumber.

“Ten years ago, how much money was spent on infrastructure building schools and hospitals in the North compared to today, the difference is huge,” said Mr. Rayes.

Shippers also have their eyes on the mining industry. While the current economic slump has delayed development of the several resource projects slated for the Arctic, Mr. Rayes said it’s not too soon to start preparing for them.

“The mines one day will become active. We’re going to see years when what we talk about today will be doubled and even tripled.”

Ice conditions are likely to encourage that increase.

The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Centre reported last week that the pace of ice melting throughout the Arctic over the month of May was about 54,000 square kilometres a day – well above the long-term average.

And every May, there’s less ice. The long-term trend shows an average decline of 34,000 square kilometres of ice a year.

That means that thick, multiyear ice that impedes navigation could soon be a thing of the past, said Michael Byers, international law professor and Arctic expert.

“From that point, the Arctic becomes comparable to the St. Lawrence,” he said.

International shippers are already making increasing use of the Passage. A cable-laying ship sailed through last year from Hong Kong to a project in the North Atlantic, Mr. Byers said.

Canada hasn’t kept up, he said.

Although Prime Minister Stephen Harper declared last fall that all ships in the Passage would be required to report to the Coast Guard, those regulations still haven’t been passed into law.

Nor does Canada have a reliable way to enforce its rules or provide search and rescue in Arctic waters. A few long-range helicopters stationed at existing facilities in Inuvik, Northwest Territories, and Iqaluit, Nunavut, would go a long way toward answering those needs, Mr. Byers said.

“We need to step up our enforcement capability.”

Meanwhile, shippers are welcoming the emerging routes and markets. “For the last 10 years, this route was practicable seven times out of 10,” said Mr. Rayes. “The fact that the last three years were the years where [this route] was ice-free is very encouraging.”

Image courtesy Trent Schindler, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio. Caption by Holli Riebeek. Data acquired 1957-2006.

Antarctic Warming Trends

NASA Earth Observatory

For a long time, it seemed that Antarctica was immune to global warming. Most of the icy southern continent, where temperatures can plummet to minus 80 degrees Celsius (-112 degrees Fahrenheit), seemed to be holding steady or even cooling as the rest of the planet warmed. But a new analysis of satellite and weather station data has shown that Antarctica has warmed at a rate of about 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees F) per decade since 1957, for a total average temperature rise of 0.5 degrees Celsius (1 degree F).

This image, based on the analysis of weather station and satellite data, shows the continent-wide warming trend from 1957 through 2006. Dark red over West Antarctica reflects that the region warmed most per decade. Most of the rest of the continent is orange, indicating a smaller warming trend, or white, where no change was observed. The underlying land surface color is based on the Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (LIMA) data set, while the topography is from a Radarsat-based digital elevation model. Sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean surrounding the continent is based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) collected on May 14, 2008 (late fall in the Southern Hemisphere).

The image paints a different picture of temperature trends in Antarctica than scientists had previously observed. Limited weather station measurements had recorded a dramatic warming trend along the peninsula, which juts into warmer waters in the Southern Ocean, but the few stations that dotted the rest of the continent reported that temperatures there had not changed or had cooled. It has been difficult to get a clear picture of temperature trends throughout Antarctica because measurements are so scarce. Few weather stations exist, and most of these are near the coast where they are relatively accessible. These coastal locations left vast regions of the continent’s interior where the temperature has never been monitored routinely. Satellites can measure the ground temperature of the entire continent, but only on clear days, when clouds don’t obscure the view. Since satellite measurements are always taken in the same sort of weather conditions, they can be skewed.

Eric J. Steig (University of Washington), David P. Schneider (National Center for Atmospheric Research), Scott D. Rutherford (Roger Williams University), Michael E. Mann (Pennsylvania State University), Josefino C. Comiso (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), and Drew T. Shindell (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University) collaborated to combine the day-to-day accuracy of weather stations with the continental coverage of satellite measurements. Led by Steig, the team compared 26 years of temperature measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), a satellite sensor run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, with simultaneous weather station measurements.

This allowed the group to map out the relationship between ground measurements and satellite measurements so that they knew roughly what the satellite temperature would be when the thermometer at a weather station registered -5 degrees Celsius, for example. The team used this relationship to extrapolate what the satellite would have recorded over the whole continent had it been in orbit when the weather station record began in 1957. Once the group reached the period when the satellite was in orbit, they checked the extrapolated values against the actual measurements to confirm that the method was sound. In the end, they generated a 50-year record of temperatures across Antarctica. Their work was published in the January 22, 2009, issue of Nature.

References

1. Hansen, K. (2009, January 22). Satellites confirm half-century of West Antarctic warming. NASA. Accessed June 18, 2009.
2. Steig, E., Schneider, D., Rutherford, S., Mann, M., Comiso, J., and Shindell, D. (2009, January 22). Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature, 457, 459-463. doi:10.1038/nature07669.
3. Steig, E. (2009, January 21). State of Antarctica: red or blue? RealClimate. Accessed June 18, 2009.

For more information, visit http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36736

Lauren Law, Arctic ‘08
2009 Global Humanitarian Forum Speaker
CMSF 2009 Millennium Excellence Provincial Award Winner (British Columbia)
Toyota Earth Day Scholarship (Pacific winner)

British Council invites Canadian high school student to speak about tackling climate change at the Global Humanitarian Forum in Switzerland

OTTAWA (June 16, 2009) - Vancouver student Lauren Law is one of four teenagers invited by the British Council in Switzerland to speak at the final plenary session of the Global Humanitarian Forum (GHF) on June 24 in Geneva. The Vancouver Technical Secondary School student will join students from South Africa, India and Myanmar to talk about their experiences of climate change impacts on their communities with Heads of State and CEOs of international corporations. They are all part of the British Council’s “Global Changemakers” programme that involves students in major international conferences such as the World Economic Forum in Davos and the G20 Summit.

Global Changemakers are a select group of youth who have demonstrated a significant track record of achievement in their local communities through social entrepreneurship, community activism, and voluntary work. These young people are part of a global network whose purpose it is to share knowledge, ideas and best practices, and work individually and jointly on projects that have direct impact on the lives of those in their local communities.

“I hope the Global Humanitarian Forum will act as a vessel for dialogue, helping to bridge the gap between youth leaders and adult world leaders,” says Ms. Law, who leaves for Switzerland on June 20. “Encountering other equally passionate environmental ambassadors will hopefully inspire me to return to Canada and implement my gained knowledge through an initiative.”

The four Global Changemakers attending the GHF have developed projects of their own to combat climate change at grassroots level and will be voicing the actions and initiatives of the young generation. In 2008 Lauren Law started an environmental program called “Plan-et for the Future” which is dedicated to developing sustainable practices in her inner-city community and promoting environmental awareness among elementary school students.

Chaired by Kofi Annan, the Global Humanitarian Forum will hold its second meeting from Tuesday 23 to Wednesday 24 June 2009 in Geneva, Switzerland. Over 400 high-level international participants from wide-raging sectors, including Heads of State and government, ministers, and heads of major corporations, and development and humanitarian organisations will gather in Geneva for the event.

Profile:

Lauren Law is an 18-year-old Grade 12 student at Vancouver Technical Secondary where she is involved in the school’s student council as an ambassador and public relations speaker. She plans to study environmental studies and political science at the University of Victoria. In 2008 she started an environmental program called “Plan-et for the Future” which is dedicated to developing sustainable practices in her inner-city community and promoting environmental awareness among elementary school students. She has been involved with a number of national and international environmental leadership initiatives including the 2007 Greening Cities International Youth Summit in London, England and the British Council’s Road-to-Davos Forum in Guildford, England in 2008. She attended the World Wildlife Fund Canada’s Earth Flotilla and volunteered with the WWF promoting their Footprint Challenge through presentations she has given to elementary schools. Last year she travelled to the Arctic with the “Students on Ice” program. Recently, she was selected as the first environmental 2010 Olympic Torchbearer to be selected by Coca-Cola in British Columbia.

For a Lauren’s short bio, visit
www.earthday.ca/scholarship/winners

For more information about Lauren’s talk, the British Council and Global Changemakers, visit
www.capefarewellcanada.ca/news-events-current-june16-2009

Precipitation map developed by Berkeley Lab’s Michael Wehner shows, among other things, a substantial reduction in springtime rains in California, and summertime rains in the Pacific Northwest. (Image courtesy of DOE/Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

Climate Change Already Having Impact On U.S., Expected To Worsen

ScienceDaily (June 17, 2009) — Two researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), Evan Mills and Michael Wehner, contributed to the analysis of the effects of climate change on all regions of the United States, described in a major report released June 16 by the multi-agency U.S. Global Change Research Program.

For the southwest region of the United States, which includes California, the report forecasts a hotter, drier climate with significant effects on the environment, agriculture and health.

“Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” covers such effects as changes in rainfall patterns, drought, wildfire, Atlantic hurricanes, and effects on food production, fish stocks and other wildlife, energy, agriculture, water supplies, and coastal communities.

“This is the most thorough and up-to-date review ever assembled of climate-change impacts observed to date as well as those anticipated in the future across the United States,” says Evan Mills, one of the Berkeley Lab scientists who contributed to the report. While the report paints an ominous picture of potential impacts, “the good news is that the harshest impacts of future climate change can be avoided if the nation takes deliberate action soon. This can be done through a balanced mix of activities to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and adaptation to the otherwise unavoidable impacts,” says Mills.

The report addresses nine zones of the United States (Southwest, Northwest, Great Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Northeast, Alaska, U.S. islands, and coasts), and describes potential climate change effects in each. California is part of the southwest zone, as well as a coastal zone.

Wehner, who is a climate researcher in the Scientific Computing Group of Berkeley Lab’s Computational Research Division, developed projections of future climate change for the report chapters covering global and national impacts of climate change. One of Wehner’s research interests is extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change.

The precipitation map shown is one of the projections developed by Wehner. It shows, among other things, a substantial reduction in springtime rains in California, and summertime rains in the Pacific Northwest.

“Even in areas where precipitation is projected to increase, higher temperatures will cause greater evaporation leading to a future where drought conditions are the normal state. In the southwest United States, water resource issues will become a major issue,” says Wehner.

Another of Wehner’s graphics shows past and future projections of the global mean surface air temperature, an indicator of the magnitude of the effects of global climate change. The three different trajectories after 2009 show low emissions, and two high emissions scenarios of how the temperature increase caused by greenhouse gas emissions could play out. The projections are based on the most sophisticated climate models available.

“These and similar projections reveal that actions taken today would take several decades to make any noticeable change in the rate of warming. This is one of the factors that makes climate change a difficult policy issue. There is no instant gratification,” says Wehner.

Mills, who studies climate change and the insurance industry in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of Berkeley Lab, worked on the report’s sections addressing impacts on society and on the energy sector. The insurance industry has been one of the early responders to the threats posed by climate change, because the industry has been a leader in preventive education against catastrophes such as fire and windstorm hazards. Extreme weather conditions, and the resulting damage, will probably impact the industry’s bottom line, possibly severely, as well as that of government provided insurance programs for floods and crops.

“Insurance is one of the industries particularly vulnerable to increasing extreme weather events such as severe storms, but it also is beginning to help society manage the risks,” says Mills. “Insurance, the world’s largest industry, will be one of the primary mechanisms through which the costs of climate change are distributed across society. Some insurers are emerging as partners in climate science and the formulation of public policy and adaptation strategies. Others have recognized that mitigation and adaptation can work hand in hand in a coordinated climate risk-management strategy and are offering “green” insurance products designed to capture these dual benefits.”

A Drier California

Decline in precipitation and water supplies will likely be one of the most prominent effects of climate change in California and other states of the southwest (Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico). The report suggests that runoff will decline from 10 to 40 percent in 2040 to 2060 relative to the 1901-1970 baseline, and warns that scarce water supplies will call for trade-offs among competing uses.

“Floods and droughts are likely to become much more common and intense as regional and seasonal precipitation patterns change and rainfall is more concentrated into heavy events with longer dry periods in between,” it states.

There will likely be less snow, with more winter precipitation falling as rain, and the wet areas will get wetter as dry areas get dryer. The region will likely see declines in the mountain snowpack, and runoff will shift to earlier in spring, reducing water flows later in the year in the summer. California is strongly dependent on spring and summer runoff to supply water for residential, commercial and agricultural uses.

Agriculture in California will likely face increasing stress from the decline in runoff and drought, as well as increasing air temperatures, and the probable rise in agricultural pests and weeds expected in a warmer climate. Flooding and storm surges are threats to coastal regions.

Forest growth in the west will decrease because of the decreasing availability of water. This will also put additional stress on salmon, trout and other coldwater fish. Superinfestations of insects will cause ecological and economic damages to timberlands.

A Hotter California

Increasing air temperatures attributed to global warming are expected to cause a rise in the number of heat-related illnesses in the 2080 to 2099 timeframe. In parts of southern California, the state’s southern Central Valley, and western Arizona, for instance, the number of days in which the temperature exceeds 100°F could exceed 120 under the report’s higher emissions scenario.

Changes in the nation’s population and distribution could combine to amplify the probability of increasing heat-related disease. As the nation ages, its older members move to warmer areas of the country including the desert southwest.

Another effect of these higher temperatures will be increased energy demand. The report predicts “increases in demand for cooling energy” in California as well as elsewhere, which will result in “significant increases in electricity use and higher peak demand in most regions.” Mills contributed analysis to the report of the strongly rising role of extreme weather events in causing electric power disruptions, while non-weather-related events show no upward trend.

The full report, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” is available here.

For more information, visit www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090616133944